Should Russia invade Ukraine?

Should Russia invade Ukraine?

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Johnatan56

Johnatan56

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Well, it's getting a lot more interesting as I think Putin thought he could Blitzkrieg it, now sanctions are properly kicking in, so will be a question of seeing how long he can keep economy stable, this is an interesting week.
 
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Sinbad

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Johnatan56 said:
Well, it's getting a lot more interesting as I think Putin thought he could Blitzkrieg it, now sanctions are properly kicking in, so will be a question of seeing how long he can keep economy stable, this is an interesting week.
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Must be quite embarrassing for your army to be held up by a gang of druggie neo nazis
 
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Paul Hjul

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Nicholas said:
Do we know whether the Russians have applied the full force of their army to this invasion?
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No but I don't think that conceptually the idea of a full force really applies here. Suppose you have a country with 10k troops and a single military adversary, full force would mean deploying all 10k troops to that adversary. But now add reservist units, add multiple prospective adversaries etc... Russia has a massive army but it actually cannot afford to use its army extensively. Russia maintains strict discipline to prevent desertion but that breaks down when you've got long distance and large numbers of enlisted into ranks troops.

So there is a practical trade in of troop numbers available for a given number of days. Russia can probably field about 200k troops for a month. They are fielding around 150k troops in Ukraine and have other adversaries. To get more troops they have to tap into money they don't have, garner enlistment and morale which they don't have in their own populace.

Russia isn't holding back troops as a plan B second wave or anything like that, they simply don't have the means to effectively command more troops in Ukraine that what is in the country.
 
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Sinbad

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They're also holding back some of their more destruction weaponry
 
Dave

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The EU have agreed that member nations can supply Ukraine with fighter jets.

www.wsj.com

The Russia-Ukraine War: Latest News

Full coverage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, from The Wall Street Journal
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

BRUSSELS—Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has asked the European Union for jet fighter jets some EU countries plan to supply them, EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday.

A person familiar with the talks later said that discussions are still ongoing. The person said any planes would be supplied directly by EU member states and not funded through an arrangement announced earlier for the EU to finance weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Mr. Borrell said that Mr. Kuleba had requested planes that Ukrainian Air Force pilots can fly. Ukraine's jet fighters are Soviet-built MiG and Sukhoi models.

Some current EU members that were once part of the USSR-led Warsaw Pact still fly such planes or have old ones parked.
 
SlinkyMike

SlinkyMike

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Johnatan56 said:
Well, it's getting a lot more interesting as I think Putin thought he could Blitzkrieg it, now sanctions are properly kicking in, so will be a question of seeing how long he can keep economy stable, this is an interesting week.
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So interesting to see. I'm starting to get this image of a reverse siege of sorts. How long can Russia sustain this bullshit while their lives crumble around them? With Finland setting precedent for the likes of Sweden and Poland (who really ought to know whats up this time round) that potentially puts Ukraine in a good position to make the pain last.

I do not wish to undermine the element of human suffering here, I am simply adopting an analytical l stance for the sake of discussion. War is humanity creating hell on earth.
 
Johnatan56

Johnatan56

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SlinkyMike said:
So interesting to see. I'm starting to get this image of a reverse siege of sorts. How long can Russia sustain this bullshit while their lives crumble around them? With Finland setting precedent for the likes of Sweden and Poland (who really ought to know whats up this time round) that potentially puts Ukraine in a good position to make the pain last.

I do not wish to undermine the element of human suffering here, I am simply adopting an analytical l stance for the sake of discussion. War is humanity creating hell on earth.
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Another interesting effect of the SWIFT cut-off is that near half of Russia's currency reserves are outside of Russia:
www.wsj.com

EU Sanctions Will Freeze About Half of Russia’s Currency Reserves

BRUSSELS— European Union sanctions on Russia will freeze roughly half the country’s foreign-currency reserves, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Sunday. The U.S., EU and other allies over recent days have imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, its president, Vladimir Putin, and For
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

DW reported it as 40%, not sure where anymore, but this means they will have trouble propping it up even short-term, and they invested a lot of money there, so they will have issues funding a war that's more than a few days/weeks, depending on how he goes about it (Russia is very far from rich they have a smaller GDP than Italy, just less debt at 20% of GDP pre-war, that's probably already at 50% based on GDP collapse without war being added to it).
Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research organization close to the Russian government, said he believed that the Kremlin expected the fighting to last no more than two weeks.

If Russia forced a capitulation of the Ukrainian army within that time, with limited destruction and limited Russian and civilian casualties, Mr. Kortunov said, Mr. Putin should be able to count on continuing domestic support.

But if the war does not go according to plan, Mr. Kortunov cautioned, the country could see “serious political consequences and consequences for the popularity of the leadership.”

“Victory will write off a lot — not everything, but a lot,” Mr. Kortunov said. “If there is no victory, then there may be some complications because of course, many doubt that there were no other policy alternatives.”


www.nytimes.com

Putin’s War Ushers In Crisis for Russia (Published 2022)

Despite the Kremlin’s efforts to obscure the offensive in Ukraine, the costs of the war were already evident in both economic and social turmoil.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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I think yesterday's reports were they managed to capture one town in total so far, sterling work of Russia considering there are multiple cities within half an hour of the border.

From the Guardian:

Summary​


The time is 1.10pm in Kyiv. This is a round-up of the main headlines from Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine so far today:

  • More than 70 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed after Russian artillery hit a military base in Okhtyrka, a city between Kharkiv and Kyiv, the head of the region wrote on Telegram.
  • Russian forces have launched rocket attacks that killed “dozens” of civilians in Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv, and began a renewed assault on the capital Kyiv. At least nine people have been killed, including three children, and 37 wounded in one day after the shelling in the city, its mayor said.
  • Russia’s advance on Kyiv has made little progress in the past 24 hours due to logistical difficulties and the army has increased its use of artillery north of the capital, a British military intelligence update said.
  • The southern Ukraine city of Kherson is “surrounded” by Russian soldiers, according to accounts by a Ukrainian journalist, Alyona Panina, and the city’s mayor.
  • The European parliament is set to call for EU-wide restrictions on imports of Russian oil and gas to the bloc, as it urges even tougher sanctions aimed at the ‘strategic weakening’ of Russia’s economy and ability to wage war.
  • Western sanctions will never make Russia change its position on Ukraine, the Kremlin said. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that while direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv had begun, there were no plans for talks between the two countries’ presidents.
  • Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has called for further international sanctions against Russia after what he said was a “barbaric” attack on the city of Kharkiv.
  • The international criminal court’s prosecutor has announced he will launch an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
  • A Russian-backed separatist leader in eastern Ukraine said his forces aimed to encircle the Ukrainian port of Mariupol on Tuesday, the RIA news agency said.
  • Satellite images taken on Monday show a Russian military convoy north-west of Kyiv that stretches for about 40 miles (64km), Reuters reports.
  • Russia used a vacuum bombon Monday in its invasion of Ukraine, according to Oksana Markarova, the Ukrainian ambassador to the US.
  • The Ukrainian president has called for a no-fly zone for Russian missiles, planes and helicopters following the attack on Kharkiv.

That’s it from me, Tom Ambrose, for now. I will be back later but my colleague Léonie Chao-Fong will be along shortly.
www.theguardian.com

Key port of Mariupol under siege as IMF and World Bank pledge $3bn for Ukraine – as it happened

US president gives State of the Union address as Russia intensifies bombardment of cities across Ukraine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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They are killing more civilians it seems, Russian diplomats also got kicked out of the United Nations.
That EU wide ban on import for oil/gas from Russia will be very interesting, I think it will pass else Germany would never have agreed to SWIFT block.

Well done on Russia making sure people won't go through with pretty much any and all sanctions when you commit war crimes like dropping a vacuumm bomb on civilians, investigations by the ICC have been launched: https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.aspx?name=20220228-prosecutor-statement-ukraine
 
Johnatan56

Johnatan56

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President Zelensky accuses Russia of WAR CRIMES over brutal shelling of Kharkiv which saw 11 civilians killed and schools destroyed as Ukraine's ambassador to the US claims Putin dropped deadly thermobaric VACUUM BOMB during invasion​

  • In an address last night, Zelensky said there would 'definitely be an international tribunal' against Russia
  • He said it had committed a 'violation of all conventions' after launching an attack on eastern city of Kharkiv
  • Attack with alleged cluster bombs on the city today killed at least 11 and injured 44
  • Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S. claimed that Russia has also used a vacuum bomb during its invasion
  • If Russia is confirmed to have used cluster bombs it could constitute a war crime
A taste of what was to come struck Kharkiv on Monday when bombs rained down on the most Russia-friendly city in Ukraine – which sits 25 miles from the border and is home to 1.5million people – in a bid to break its will to resist.
The hail of bombs, shells and rockets which began falling at lunchtime left at least 11 dead, including three children, with homes and even a school reduced to rubble.
A military source told MailOnline that videos of the onslaught showed 'cluster' munitions - which are illegal under international law - had been used.
'The BM-21 Grad is a multiple launch rocket system used for "area denial", dropping cluster bombs on a concentrated area,' the expert said. 'It's mainly used on enemy troops before an offensive. Used against civilians, it's not only a war crime, but has only one purpose – to spread terror and alarm among the civilian population.'
www.dailymail.co.uk

Explosions rock Kyiv after dozens killed CLUSTER BOMB attack

Dramatic video filmed in the Ukrainian capital showed the moment that the night lit up with an enormous fire ball, which reportedly stemmed from a military radar communication center.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
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This will just make Ukraine less likely to capitulate and make it more likely the West will give even more support.
 
biometrics

biometrics

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Saw a video on Reddit today of a Ukrainian soldier showing Russian rat packs that expired in 2015.
 
Seldom Bucket

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What has already been disabled in Russia as of 02.03.2022

Apple Pay - full block
Apple - complete withdrawal from the market
Adidas - withdrawal from the national soccer team
Audi - withdrawal from the market
AMD - banning the supply of microchips and soon banning the supply of graphics cards
Amazon - complete block of all retail
Adobe - total lockout.
British Petrolium - withdraw from Rosneft 20% stake
BBC - revocation of broadcasting licenses.
BMW - closing factories, blocking shipments.
Bolt - withdrawal from market
Boeing - withdrawal from the market
Chevrolet - withdrawal from the market
Cannes Festival - block of Russian delegation
Cadillac - exit from the market
Carlsberg - export limitation
Cex Io - crypto site bans users
Cinema 4D - application does not work
Coca Cola - exit from the market
Danone - withdrawal from the market along with its subsidiary Prostokvashino
Disney - cancellation of all movies
Dell - exit from the market
Dropbox - will stop working in the country in a few days
DHL - withdrawal from the market
Eurovision - disqualification
Ericsson - withdrawal from the market.
Exxon Mobil - withdrawal of all specialists from Russian oil companies
Etsy - blocking of all balances in Russian accounts
Facebook - ban of Russian media accounts
FedEx - complete ban on shipments
Formula 1 - cancellation of the Sochi tournament
Ford - closing all stores
FIFA - disqualification of the national team from the World Cup and banning any international matches in Russia
Google Pay - partial block
Google Maps - block of info for the Russian Federation.
General Motors - stops exports
HP - import ban
Harley Davidson - stopping shipments
Instagram - blocking propaganda
Intel - banning shipments of microchips
Jaguar - withdraw from the market
Jooble - removed service and made a statement
KUNA - going out of the market
Lenovo - leaving the market
LinkedIn - getting ready to exit the country completely
MOK - all the contests were canceled
Mastercard - suspension of card production, disconnection of several banks
Maersk - stoppage of shipments to/from Russia - goodbye to Ali express and ASOS
Mercedes - withdrawal from the country
Megogo - removal of all Russian movies
Metro - dismissal of 10k employees
Mitsubishi - 141 service center employees will be laid off
Microsoft Office - wide range of measures under discussion
Mobile World Congress - denial of accreditation for the Russian delegation
NFT - block of funds of Russian and Belarusian users, transfer of their money to Ukraine
NHL - full block for Russian players
Netflix - block for Russian subscriptions, suspension of series' production in Russia
Nike - all stores will be closed
Nintendo - ban on purchases in rubles
Nestle - closing of all 6 factories in Russia
OnlyFans - closing in the country
Paysera - blocking
PayPal - freezing of accounts for withdrawal
Paramount - block film distribution
Parimatch - franchise has been revoked
Play Station - impossible to make a payment
Pornhub - content access restriction
Porsche - withdrawal from the Russian Federation
Renault - withdrawal from the market
Samsung pay - service blocking
Snapchat - withdrawal from the application in the Russian Federation and Belarus
Scania - exit from the Russian Federation
SpaceX - delivery of Starlink to Ukraine
Shell - termination of contract with Gazprom
Spotify - inability to pay the subscription
Sony - block of movie distribution
Twitter - no Russian citizens can register their accounts
TikTok - mass banning of aggressive people and the so-called media
Toyota - dismissal of 2 600 employees
UEFA - the UEFA European Football Championship final in St. Petersburg was canceled, all clubs were banned from taking part in the Champions League and European league, the contracts with Gazprom as a general sponsor were terminated
 
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