Should Russia invade Ukraine?

[satanboy]

Should Russia invade Ukraine?

 

[EADC]

Only to see if there would be a WW3

 

[spiderz]

What's the back story?

 

[Paul Hjul]

Misread the title as "Should Rassie invade Ukraine" and I took about 3 seconds to move from "why would we play rugby against Ukraine" to ah Russia...

 

[OCP]

Not really a question though ... just a metter of time.

Don't think any country is willing to go to full scale war atm so there will be lots of political noise and sanctions + material and logistical support.

 

[Johnatan56]

Not really a question though ... just a metter of time.

Don't think any country is willing to go to full scale war atm so there will be lots of political noise and sanctions + material and logistical support.

I kind of doubt Russia would be dumb enough, it's a case of if they do it they will force a conflict/Europe to get involved. Right now Europe is playing a game of it's all right, they won't do it, if Russia does do it you'll see very fast military upscaling for all of EU and they'll finally sort out their EU military force.

 

[OCP]

I kind of doubt Russia would be dumb enough, it's a case of if they do it they will force a conflict/Europe to get involved. Right now Europe is playing a game of it's all right, they won't do it, if Russia does do it you'll see very fast military upscaling for all of EU and they'll finally sort out their EU military force.

I am not sure they would - just look at the joke that is NATO :-(

Europe is far too divided which is exactly why Putin is pushing his luck atm.

 

[Seldom Bucket]

Of course comrade. Mother Russia has already annexed Crimea.
And don't forget America's senile moron, he'll just stoke the fire more

 

[Johnatan56]

I am not sure they would - just look at the joke that is NATO :-(

Europe is far too divided which is exactly why Putin is pushing his luck atm.

Europe is far from divided on this, it's a case of want to stay neutral (many of us have parents/grandparents that fought in the world wars) or want to stop Russia, but if Russia actually force the issue, EU will go to war.

Most of the reason why e.g. Germany doesn't have a strong military compared to its economic strength is because there is a lack of will to have it, if war happens you will see reform happen pretty fast; there are stupidities there like forcing the commissioner to seek authorization on anything above 250 EUR, but yet they have billions of EUR of equipment, the rules there don't have approve at discretion now and later audit. They also still have rules like max 375k troops including civilian binding them from WW2, thought they aren't close to it, think they're at 250k'ish.

Germany feels like it's stuck similar to Austria was a decade ago (and Austria still is, just less), Germans are not efficient, they're bureaucratic, and they need to cut a lot of it out, war is great for that.

Same will happen in France, their biggest issue currently is logistics in terms of bureaucracy, their northern Africa deployments all suffered from getting the equipment and stuff there, their army is actually good, and that's why the UK is considered probably the second strongest military might in the Western world, even though they have far less troops than France, and less than Germany.

Russia basically has a huge troop amount, but air force and naval is near non-existent, and their foot soldiers are mostly cannon fodder, if they do actually enter a war, they'll have an obscene amount of casualties probably, it's not going to look good for Putin prestige.

 

[OCP]

Europe is far from divided on this, it's a case of want to stay neutral (many of us have parents/grandparents that fought in the world wars) or want to stop Russia, but if Russia actually force the issue, EU will go to war.

Most of the reason why e.g. Germany doesn't have a strong military compared to its economic strength is because there is a lack of will to have it, if war happens you will see reform happen pretty fast; there are stupidities there like forcing the commissioner to seek authorization on anything above 250 EUR, but yet they have billions of EUR of equipment, the rules there don't have approve at discretion now and later audit. They also still have rules like max 375k troops including civilian binding them from WW2, thought they aren't close to it, think they're at 250k'ish.

Same will happen in France, their biggest issue currently is logistics in terms of bureaucracy, their northern Africa deployments all suffered from getting the equipment and stuff there, their army is actually good, and that's why the UK is considered probably the second strongest military might in the Western world, even though they have far less troops than France, and less than Germany.

Russia basically has a huge troop amount, but air force and naval is near non-existent, and their foot soldiers are mostly cannon fodder, if they do actually enter a war, they'll have an obscene amount of casualties probably, it's not going to look good for Putin prestige.

I hope you are right!

 

[Dave]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491338203059879943

 

[satanboy]

For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter to Russia to risk a world war?“

How the nation of Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.

Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an industrialized country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
2-е Europe's and 4th largest natural gas pipeline system in the world (142.5 bln cubic meters of gas throughput capacity in the EU);
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

Ukrainian Congress Committee of America Ukrainian World Congress - Свiтовий Конґрес Українців
SOURCE:
https://www.facebook.com/andriy.futey

 

[LD50]

I think it will open up the possibility for new threads here.

 

[Nicholas]

Europe is far from divided on this, it's a case of want to stay neutral (many of us have parents/grandparents that fought in the world wars) or want to stop Russia, but if Russia actually force the issue, EU will go to war.

Most of the reason why e.g. Germany doesn't have a strong military compared to its economic strength is because there is a lack of will to have it, if war happens you will see reform happen pretty fast; there are stupidities there like forcing the commissioner to seek authorization on anything above 250 EUR, but yet they have billions of EUR of equipment, the rules there don't have approve at discretion now and later audit. They also still have rules like max 375k troops including civilian binding them from WW2, thought they aren't close to it, think they're at 250k'ish.

Germany feels like it's stuck similar to Austria was a decade ago (and Austria still is, just less), Germans are not efficient, they're bureaucratic, and they need to cut a lot of it out, war is great for that.

Same will happen in France, their biggest issue currently is logistics in terms of bureaucracy, their northern Africa deployments all suffered from getting the equipment and stuff there, their army is actually good, and that's why the UK is considered probably the second strongest military might in the Western world, even though they have far less troops than France, and less than Germany.

Russia basically has a huge troop amount, but air force and naval is near non-existent, and their foot soldiers are mostly cannon fodder, if they do actually enter a war, they'll have an obscene amount of casualties probably, it's not going to look good for Putin prestige.

In other words, if Russia does attack, and does not immediately sweep across Ukraine, there might get to a stage where they need to decide whether what the war is costing them is worth it. I'd expect to see economic sanctions stacked on top of Russia.

I'm not surprised that war would be a sensitive matter for Germany, even now. I read somewhere that being in the Bundeswehr is practically looked down on.

 

[Nicholas]

I kind of doubt Russia would be dumb enough, it's a case of if they do it they will force a conflict/Europe to get involved. Right now Europe is playing a game of it's all right, they won't do it, if Russia does do it you'll see very fast military upscaling for all of EU and they'll finally sort out their EU military force.

I guess it would also force Europe to become much less reliant on Russian gas.

I wonder what moving 100 000+ troops and their equipment to the border is costing the Russians?

Has China said anything about this yet?

 

[Dave]

 

[Johnatan56]

 

[Nicholas]

It looks as if they have. :-(

 

[Dave]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496767831182041089

 

[Johnatan56]

It looks as if they have. :-(

Yep, using the excuse of those are "independent regions" basically removed the sovereignty issue for China, wonder what will end up happening.

This is enough that even Germany and Austria will probably agree to SWIFT cut-offs, it has already started a crash of the Russian economy.

At home, a crashing ruble will put even more pressure on an already struggling economy. Inflation is running at its highest level in six years of 8.7% and household finances are in a worse shape than a decade ago. A recent survey by a state-owned pollster found almost two-thirds of Russian families said they have no savings.


The ruble’s devaluation will only accentuate the living standards crisis — pushing prices up, possibly dramatically. According to one study, imported goods account for some 75% of the products and ingredients that go into making everyday products and food that are sold in Russia.

Scope Ratings’ analyst Levon Kameryan said the escalation of the conflict could also result in capital flight, as Russians seek to protect their savings and assets from the looming economic crisis.

Russia’s Economy on the Brink of Crisis After Ukraine Attack - The Moscow Times

Russia’s economy faces being plunged into a fresh economic crisis following Moscow’s move to start military action in Ukraine.

www.themoscowtimes.com