ZAR:USD Exchange Rate

satanboy

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Unless Ramaphosa messes something up again, should probably hover stable around 14 would be my guess, but really depends on how trade unions handle the court stating wage agreements are invalid.
You almost had me believe that these things were linked.
 

biometrics

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Unless Ramaphosa messes something up again, should probably hover stable around 14 would be my guess, but really depends on how trade unions handle the court stating wage agreements are invalid.
Nah, it will keep going down, the Rand is hugely undervalued.
 

Johnatan56

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Nah, it will keep going down, the Rand is hugely undervalued.
Not really, only reason it's increasing in value now is because the dollar is weakening due to Biden policies (he wants to print more money, decrease value of dollar so it's more competitive to bring industry/services back to US again, kind of doubt it will happen but off topic), has nothing to do with South Africa.
I think rand value currently is still generally so stable because most foreigners think South Africa will get their debt under control still, once the semblance of control is lost there, you'll see it start crashing again.
A huge issue is that e.g. the reserve bank is buying government bonds: https://www.news24.com/fin24/econom...4bn-worth-of-govt-bonds-during-april-20200508 and a lot of our normal banks also bought them, you'll probably see less fluctuation of the currency from it, but it's actually way riskier because government having issues will have way more of an impact.
 

biometrics

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Not really, only reason it's increasing in value now is because the dollar is weakening due to Biden policies, has nothing to do with South Africa.
I think rand value currently is still generally so stable because most foreigners think South Africa will get their debt under control still, once the semblance of control is lost there, you'll see it start crashing again.
Are you a Bitcoin fan? :p
 

Johnatan56

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Are you a Bitcoin fan? :p
Added to my post, and no, I'm not. I think governments need to be in control of currencies, since it's really a game of perceived worth and not real worth. Bitcoin has no backing behind it, government currencies do (in the form of taxes which is promise of work).

EDIT:
Just adding to this, I do believe in crypto's design principle though, in terms of how the chain operates etc., government/banks should be able to learn from that.
 
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Düber

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government currencies do (in the form of taxes which is promise of work).
That's a very interesting view, I have never thought of it like that but it makes perfect sense.

I personally like the idea of a currency not controlled by a government and have often wondered what it might look like, something that is not created or maintained by waste and expenditure, like Bitcoin is.
 

biometrics

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That's a very interesting view, I have never thought of it like that but it makes perfect sense.

I personally like the idea of a currency not controlled by a government and have often wondered what it might look like, something that is not created or maintained by waste and expenditure, like Bitcoin is.
Unless it's universal it's just another currency.
 

Düber

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The US happy about Biden perhaps? (Have no idea, just a guess.)
 

Johnatan56

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In addition to the 1.60% spike in US treasury yields (the highest in a year), the US dollar also started clawing back losses from the past few days further impacting emerging markets, Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE noted.

"The fallout from the US Treasury Yields also resulted in the commodity market selling off with all commodities starting the day in the red," he added. Most commodities were still trading lower by mid-morning, with gold at $1 767, platinum at $1 215 and brent crude at $66 per barrel.


Further ashore, US markets and Asian markets had also been struggling, Cilliers pointed out. "It is evident that the market is currently 'risk-off', and should this push through to the currency space, we could see EM's on the back foot during today's trading," said Cilliers. On the bright side, exporters could benefit, he added.
[...}

"Indeed, the rand could weaken somewhat further as the initial exuberance is reversed further on the realisation that the debt trajectory planned now, while lower than October's, is still in excess of that expected a year ago, and well in excess of other EM middle income economies," said Bishop.

Expect to hover upper 15 depending on US markets.

EDIT: And that 4 March spike coincides with Eskom:

Electricity generation and consumption fell in January​

As a spike in infections prompted the tightening of restrictions in January, electricity generation and consumption fell by -3.2% y/y and -2.4% y/y respectively​

Electricity production fell by -3.2% y/y in January, following December’s 1.1% y/y lift. Similarly, consumption of electricity slid by -2.4% y/y, after rising by 1.7% y/y in December.

Indeed, lockdown restrictions were tightened towards the end of last year, in the face of rising infections, weighing on economic activity. Furthermore, intermittent load shedding intensified during January.

Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is currently sitting at 58.44 for the year-to-date, down from 2020’s average reading of 65.04. The swift extension of South Africa’s energy generation capacity remains one of government’s four key priority areas as specified in the Economic Reconstruction and Renewal Plan and further reiterated in the President’s State of the Nation Address (SONA).

“Restoring Eskom to operational and financial health and accelerating its restructuring process is central to this objective,” according to the President. Indeed, aiding Eskom in managing its significant debt burden and heavy reliance on the fiscus is essential.

A high court ruling on the 16 February will see Eskom increasing average tariff prices by 5.63% for the 2021/22 financial year, commencing 1st April, for standard tariff customers, allowing the cash strapped SOE to recover “prudently incurred” electricity production costs and helping it alleviate some of its financial burden.

Indeed while 2021’s domestic growth prospects have improved, supported by the vaccination rollout and a likely recovery, albeit protracted in the global economy, electricity supply constraints remain a concern. Despite government’s efforts over the past year to increase energy generation capability, in addition to Eskom’s capacity, the utility projects that, there will still be an “electricity supply shortfall of between 4 000 and 6 000 MW over the next five years, as old coal-fired power stations reach their end of life.”

In response to this an appeal for “proposals for 2 600 MW from wind and solar energy as part of Bid Window 5”, will be released imminently, followed by another bid window in August, according to government.
 
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