Will a "Second Wave" Happen?

[Paul Hjul]

I almost feel there should be a conscientious effort towards fast tracking "herd immunity" IE promote spreading the virus rather than promote non pharmaceutical interventions... get it over and done with so we can carry on with our lives (those that survive it). Realize this is a preposterous and controversial suggestion but sometimes it seems we are delaying the inevitable while at the same time wrecking the global economy...

SA is the 25th most populous country in the world with the 12th most confirmed cases. We may already be approaching "herd immunity". Let's face it, our lock down was only adhered to in the communities that had the resources and infrastructure to do so.

I find it interesting that many accept the notion that Sweden has "herd immunity" with their 85k odd confirmed cases.

SA is geographically vast too. In that sense we have an advantage. Negated to some extent, by our townships.

You grossly underestimate the morbidity and associated costs. Sweden most definitely is nowhere near "herd immunity" and outside of a meh rights bubble you will battle to find much acceptance of Swedens later approach - Sweden is not the disaster it could be because they made effective early measures of a non-draconian nature.

 

[satanboy]

This thing will just fade away man. Our reactions need to be tempered and measured but certainly not extreme. For people with co-morbidities, sure - keep safe. But for the rest, maybe just practice common sense and try not to be a dick.

Years ago I came to terms with my own morbidity and I really don't need any government or WHO telling me how I have to behave. If 20 people knowing the risk wanna get together and be stupid, they have my blessing. And if 100 people wanna do the same, I hope there will be hot chicks and an invite for old Greg. He loves a party.

It's not about you, it's about the other innocent people "you" infect.

 

[satanboy]

I don't care at this point, people are only wearing masks because they're being told to do so, yesterday I saw two females walk into KFC and use the cap of their hoodie as a mask I spoke to the manager and he asked if I am racist. Like what the actual fuck.

You should have said "Well, now that you ask YES, but how does that relate to a mask?"

 

[GreGorGy]

It's not about you, it's about the other innocent people "you" infect.

If they are at the party, they are by no means innocent.

 

[Paul Hjul]

If they are at the party, they are by no means innocent.

even the attendees who are hired to be there?

 

[GreGorGy]

even the attendees who are hired to be there?

What kind of parties do you think I throw?

 

[satanboy]

The point is this if you or that innocent other party end up getting ill, you will be taking up room in the hospital that could have been used for unforeseen urgent cases instead of this kak.

 

[Y2K]

Well are you??!!! Hey??!! Hey?!! HEY?!!

Lmao to me skin colour is just that, a colour, whether I agree to your morals and values is a different story. You will never reach a common ground with certain individuals not based on the colour of their skin but rather their intellectual state, I prefer to avoid them all together.

 

[Y2K]

You should have said "Well, now that you ask YES, but how does that relate to a mask?"

Doesn't matter if I'm correct, the fact that I'm admitting to being racist will be the trump card in that argument.

 

[GreGorGy]

The point is this if you or that innocent other party end up getting ill, you will be taking up room in the hospital that could have been used for unforeseen urgent cases instead of this kak.

In my book that is a big IF. Very big if. Because it is IF we get ill, we MAY be taking up room IF it requires hospitalisation, which it does not do regularly. I think the hospitalisation rate is 1 in 5. And with our infection rate as a percent of the population, I have a 0.002 chance of taking up room in a hospital. And given that the nasrec centre for covid is at 5% occupancy, I won't be taking up any room that could have been used for anything other than an exhibition.

 

[satanboy]

Doesn't matter if I'm correct, the fact that I'm admitting to being racist will be the trump card in that argument.

Ok. Then you should have asked the manager of you could phone his boss and ask him the same question.

 

[satanboy]

In my book that is a big IF. Very big if. Because it is IF we get ill, we MAY be taking up room IF it requires hospitalisation, which it does not do regularly. I think the hospitalisation rate is 1 in 5. And with our infection rate as a percent of the population, I have a 0.002 chance of taking up room in a hospital. And given that the nasrec centre for covid is at 5% occupancy, I won't be taking up any room that could have been used for anything other than an exhibition.

Well I can't argue against such a solid and well thought plan.

 

[Paul Hjul]

What kind of parties do you think I throw?

I don't know what kind of parties you throw, you never bloody invite me. Whatever parties you throw you better invite me to the next and make sure there is cake

 

[Paul Hjul]

In my book that is a big IF. Very big if. Because it is IF we get ill, we MAY be taking up room IF it requires hospitalisation, which it does not do regularly. I think the hospitalisation rate is 1 in 5. And with our infection rate as a percent of the population, I have a 0.002 chance of taking up room in a hospital. And given that the nasrec centre for covid is at 5% occupancy, I won't be taking up any room that could have been used for anything other than an exhibition.

With some irony though the fact that you may get sick at any time may contribute to their being more available hospital beds. As a general proposition public health is easier to deliver positive widely social beneficial programs in places where there is a market that has already catered to selling health services to people who are buying it.

I can't recall the exact details but there was some research a couple of years back on improvements in some US rust belt towns in things like infant mortality and the like and an essential correlation between certain wealthier risk taking getting into bar fights fight club biker types could actually be drawn. The reason is that the idiots who get drunk and go and walk through glass doors could and would pay for medical care and were generally well insured incentivizing private sector investment into the health care ecosystem. Of course getting a whole lot of unemployed bikers fighting in your town is a different story and one must be careful not to fall into a broken window fallacy but as a general principle it is better for the government to let you do stupid shit that will get you - but nobody else - into hospital if and only if the costs of such hospitalization is less than the amount you are willing and able to pay for hospitalization.

 

[Paul Hjul]

In my book that is a big IF. Very big if. Because it is IF we get ill, we MAY be taking up room IF it requires hospitalisation, which it does not do regularly. I think the hospitalisation rate is 1 in 5. And with our infection rate as a percent of the population, I have a 0.002 chance of taking up room in a hospital. And given that the nasrec centre for covid is at 5% occupancy, I won't be taking up any room that could have been used for anything other than an exhibition.

Of course the situation is a little more nuanced, the Nasrec centre - which frankly was not given nearly enough positive coverage, the UK droned on about their 9 day hospital at ExCel - is more of a single condition sanitorium that isn't spec'd to deal with every manner of complication. Quite a lot of mistakes were made in many parts of the world (the yanks have some insane instances of this) in overprovisioning for a flood of patients in one area and then shortly after finding empty beds decommissioning and then being hit. At the end of the day while the business case for healthcare provisioning tends to focus on having high occupancy when it comes to public health crisis your biggest crisis is shortage. Ask France, Spain and Italy.

I do think that SA would do well to actually say to people - "look if you are going to get sick now and put into field hospitals that will be better than if you shelter for 3 months and then all require attendance at the same time later" but some of the opening measures are built around opening the tap a little implicitly are made.

It is also very clear that a lot of measures adopted globally to restrain use of hospital and health resources are woefully unsuited to a pandemic outbreak or for a lot of these sorts of "black swan events" and SA is seeing the consequences of government health department ineptitude in full swing. Again the "save the NHI" gibberish coupled with a lot of policy stupidity didn't help England and the US is just a shit show happening. Here as well though Sweden isn't an example of what the right ring brigade want it to be but rather of how much more important pre-pandemic level responses of a subtle nature actually were. In January surgeries needed to be moved forward rather than in February and March having the postponed. From around the 29th December 2019 planning not only to flatten a curve but to maintain supply for curve predictions was needed, we needed to see not just the infectious disease specialists working to get on top of this - and again I really don't think people appreciate just how fucking incredible the global scientific communities response has been, I'd wager just about anything that a pathogen with covid-19s attributes in a world as globally connected at any previous point in history would have been a far greater shit show - the ability to skill hospitality workers to shift into primary care, the protocols to convert hotels into infirmaries were all found wanting. What was needed 10 months ago was the logistics planning mechanisms of D-Day. I fear that what will be needed soon is the same logistics machine to get vaccinations moving out and that globally things will be short.

 

[GreGorGy]

I fear that what will be needed soon is the same logistics machine to get vaccinations moving out and that globally things will be short.

Vaccines. Oh god now there's a can of worms. As it is the avax community is somewhat challenged. Now throw Gates into the mix. A vaccination programme doesn't need logistics - it needs marketing to these morons. Lots of them.

 

[GreGorGy]

I don't know what kind of parties you throw, you never bloody invite me. Whatever parties you throw you better invite me to the next and make sure there is cake

As previously mentioned, you had me at cake. Of course, to attend you have to be in Joburg next week friday.

 

[Paul Hjul]

Vaccines. Oh god now there's a can of worms. As it is the avax community is somewhat challenged. Now throw Gates into the mix. A vaccination programme doesn't need logistics - it needs marketing to these morons. Lots of them.

Ja the antivaxer crisis is a whole can. Of course doing dumb shit like immunising manufacturers from any liability for harm, loosening practices for testing and generally adopting a blinker vaccine at speed at any cost will make the treatment unsafe but honestly my biggest fear of a covid vaccine mass rollout right now is a lot of people getting jabbed to the bone and the like.

 

[GreGorGy]

Ja the antivaxer crisis is a whole can. Of course doing dumb shit like immunising manufacturers from any liability for harm, loosening practices for testing and generally adopting a blinker vaccine at speed at any cost will make the treatment unsafe but honestly my biggest fear of a covid vaccine mass rollout right now is a lot of people getting jabbed to the bone and the like.

Ouch. That's so likely to happen. And then watch the shitshow.

 

[rambo919]

The people marked to die will die, if a previous wave does not get them a later one will..... a virus introduced into the general population is basically Thanos...... people need to stop being so scared of death, if you get it bad just get euthanized if a long suffering death is not to your taste. Most people don't even know they have it because they don't even develop symptoms.