Will a "Second Wave" Happen?

Will a "Second Wave" Happen?

  • Definitely and it will be bad

    Votes: 6 37.5%
  • Meh, who knows, who cares

    Votes: 8 50.0%
  • No, give it up already, jeez

    Votes: 2 12.5%

  • Total voters
    16

biometrics

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Mmm, leaning towards the bad, but neutral seems the right selection.
 

GreGorGy

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This thing will just fade away man. Our reactions need to be tempered and measured but certainly not extreme. For people with co-morbidities, sure - keep safe. But for the rest, maybe just practice common sense and try not to be a dick.

Years ago I came to terms with my own morbidity and I really don't need any government or WHO telling me how I have to behave. If 20 people knowing the risk wanna get together and be stupid, they have my blessing. And if 100 people wanna do the same, I hope there will be hot chicks and an invite for old Greg. He loves a party.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Y2K

biometrics

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Oct 17, 2019
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14,760
This thing will just fade away man. Our reactions need to be tempered and measured but certainly not extreme. For people with co-morbidities, sure - keep safe. But for the rest, maybe just practice common sense and try not to be a dick.

Years ago I came to terms with my own morbidity and I really don't need any government or WHO telling me how I have to behave. If 20 people knowing the risk wanna get together and be stupid, they have my blessing. And if 100 people wanna do the same, I hope there will be hot chicks and an invite for old Greg. He loves a party.
Mark you as "No"?
 

Tribs

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I am doing my first face to face training course on Monday and am a little nervous. But life has to continue. And I want my CT trips to resume - so while I think there will be a second wave - I am hoping for the No option.
 

Paul Hjul

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Apr 9, 2020
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yes there will be a "second wave" as in an increase spike in transmission as measures to constrain the spread decline. In terms of "worse" the metric of mortalities, doubt it - (a) it doesn't appear that more mortality inducing strains are at play; (b) the totality of knowledge about treatment has massively improved, treatment protocols are more effective less mortality. How exactly one defines morbidity is a conundrum but on the whole I don't think an increase in transmission will equate to greater morbidity generally partly for the same reasons that mortality spike isn't expected but also

It is appearing to be the case that absent a vaccine there isn't a prospect of achieving significant herd based immunity - sadly the term immunity is brandied about as absolute immunity which in very few things in life is the case, immunity is usually a relative thing (although gaining immunity from interacting with bad relatives is quite an exercise to achieve). However it is also appearing strongly to be the case that while there is reinfection in some cases on the whole the sort of population virginity that results in virulent morbidity has passed - basically a lot of people have had sub-critical exposure and can ward off quite a bit and the risk of a super-spreader in the population is less now than 6 months ago.

What is frustrating is that we continue with this nonsensical economy vs safety false dichotomy. When bodies are piling up or people are unable to work because they are sick the economy collapses and when there is no economic activity livelihoods are destroyed followed by lives. The risks of 20 people having a jol and all getting sick is one thing the problem of 250 people in an enclosed space with each going to another venue and hitting another 250 people is quite another - exponentially so. We should be in the phase - and should have been for a long time - where measures in place are not so much designed as to prevent people from getting sick as a result of their own risk adjusted decisions but rather around preventing people who aren't making those decisions from getting sick.
 

sand_man

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I almost feel there should be a conscientious effort towards fast tracking "herd immunity" IE promote spreading the virus rather than promote non pharmaceutical interventions... get it over and done with so we can carry on with our lives (those that survive it). Realize this is a preposterous and controversial suggestion but sometimes it seems we are delaying the inevitable while at the same time wrecking the global economy...

SA is the 25th most populous country in the world with the 12th most confirmed cases. We may already be approaching "herd immunity". Let's face it, our lock down was only adhered to in the communities that had the resources and infrastructure to do so.

I find it interesting that many accept the notion that Sweden has "herd immunity" with their 85k odd confirmed cases.

SA is geographically vast too. In that sense we have an advantage. Negated to some extent, by our townships.
 
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sand_man

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Our 2nd wave will depend on whether we have a 2nd wave of mass testing. 50k a day tests, at least. Failing that there will be no 2nd wave. Want to avert a 2nd wave. Don't test... simple but a false economy...

Currently around 8% of tests are coming back positive. What percentage of positive tests constitutes a 2nd wave would be the pertinent question?
 

sand_man

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What for me is quite terrifying is the 80 odd cases from the Tin Roof excursion... that's how easily and how quickly this shit spreads!! It would seem it is impossible to contain... why even try?
 

Tribs

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I almost feel there should be a conscientious effort towards fast tracking "herd immunity" IE promote spreading the virus rather than promote non pharmaceutical interventions... get it over and done with so we can carry on with our lives (those that survive it). Realize this is a preposterous and controversial suggestion but sometimes it seems we are delaying the inevitable while at the same time wrecking the global economy...

SA is the 25th most populous country in the world with the 12th most confirmed cases. We may already be approaching "herd immunity". Let's face it, our lock down was only adhered to in the communities that had the resources and infrastructure to do so.

I find it interesting that many accept the notion that Sweden has "herd immunity" with their 85k odd confirmed cases.

SA is geographically vast too. In that sense we have an advantage. Negated to some extent, by our townships.
Actually I believe we were saved by the people who were most likely to come into contact with the virus - being in lockdown. Those rich enough to travel abroad and those who would have worked with people who traveled. Because domestic workers and tradesmen, who would have worked for these possible carriers, were not allowed to travel to work, the virus did not get to the overpopulated areas.

This is my belief anyway.
 

sand_man

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Actually I believe we were saved by the people who were most likely to come into contact with the virus - being in lockdown. Those rich enough to travel abroad and those who would have worked with people who traveled. Because domestic workers and tradesmen, who would have worked for these possible carriers, were not allowed to travel to work, the virus did not get to the overpopulated areas.

This is my belief anyway.
Initially perhaps but not in the long term....

From the Dunvegan medical center FB post: By now the COVID-19 pandemic has affected everyone. We all know of someone who has been ill with it, been hospitalised with it, continues to suffers the effects of it or unfortunately has died of it. It will leave a scar on all people for our lifetime.

There is a very special group of people that I need to mention and that is the aged. COVID-19 has ravaged senior citizens world wide. Advanced age and multiple comorbidities has left the aged exposed to this terrible disease. We have not escaped this within our own community.

On 16 June of this year Dr Flora and I were called in to assess a COVID-19 outbreak at the Greek Old Age Home in Orange Grove. The home is residence to 35 residents. A resident was taken to the LInksfield Hospital after injuring her hip and a pre admission COVID-19 test was positive for the virus! Mrs Daniella Chrisostomou, the Chairlady, contacted Dr Flora and they ordered COVID-19 tests on all residents and staff. On first entering the home it was apparent that some residents were starting to fall ill. All staff were locked in at the home. On realising that we were dealing with a crisis we contacted Dr Angela Hajimarkos for help. A 'COVID Crisis' committee was established. It was made up of the Old Age Home Committee members, the Hellenic Federation, the SAHETI Alumni, and the medical team. Between the three of us and under Dr Flora's guidance we assessed all residents and staff and visited daily. Some residents were hospitalised. On the 4th day of the crisis we repeated the COVID-19 tests on everyone in the home. The support from the Greek community of Johannesburg was outstanding. Medical equipment, oxygen concentrators, food, medicines and financial aid were donated in no time. Unfortunately 9 residents died from COVID-19. We lost no staff. The staff remained locked in for 42 days! Their dedication to their work and to the residents was outstanding.

Dr Flora sought the guidance of Prof E Vardas, a virologist with Lancet labs. She arranged for the donation of Abbott laboratory antibody tests for all residents and staff. The outcome of all these tests has been interesting. Of the 35 residents, 32 were positive to COVID-19. Of the 40 staff, 24 were positive to COVID-19. The timelines of this outbreak show that the staff were ill well before the residents. Of the 24 positive staff only 3 needed time off work as they were ill. The rest were mildly ill or asymptomatic.

The hard work is not over. Planning the way forward is a bigger challenge. The three negative residents need to be protected at all costs. They will be joined by at least 12 new residents in due course. New residents will be tested for antibodies to COVID-19 on entering. If positive they can join the main body of residents. If not then they will be quarantined for 8 days and tested for COVID-19. The negative residents can only be nursed by positive, recovered nurses. The negative staff have to be educated in not coming into contact with negative residents. Work rosters are set so that each negative group of nurses, cleaners, kitchen staff and security is kept apart from negative residents. The logistics is quite challenging. Family visits are done by appointment only. Social distancing and sanitising is the norm. All staff wear full PPE at all times. Agency staff will no longer be employed as we have no control of their COVID-19 status. The negative staff will be monitored and tested at random or should they become ill.

The entry of COVID-19 into the home undoubtedly came from the staff. As they are a younger group, they were not symptomatic or were mildly symptomatic and unaware of its presence. The virus entered despite meticulous daily temperature measuring which is clearly of no value and a waste of manpower. Knowing the antibody status of everyone in the home has been of great help as it allows us to plan the movement of staff amongst the residents as well as to educate them on their role in keeping the residents safe. Controlling the movement of residents within the home is not possible as a number of them suffer from dementia and are unable to reason. We are aware that the antibody protection from reinfection may only last until next year, but by then we will have more science on immunity and we will be closer to a vaccine which will hopefully mean the end of this awful period in our lives .

Our heartfelt condolences to all who have lost parents, grandparents of family in this time. Our immense thanks to all organisations and individuals in the Greek Community who opened their hearts to the Greek Old Age Home and for the many prayers and words of support that carried the home, its residents and its committee through this time. We continue with our work to keep our seniors safe and hope that they will be secure through the next wave of COVID-19.

Chris Moschides, Flora Kontogeorgis, Angela Hajimarkos
 

Y2K

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I don't care at this point, people are only wearing masks because they're being told to do so, yesterday I saw two females walk into KFC and use the cap of their hoodie as a mask 🤦‍♂️ I spoke to the manager and he asked if I am racist. Like what the actual fuck.
 

LD50

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Mar 15, 2020
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This virus is not doing enough imo.
In fact, the world has been taking this bad excuse for a virus WAY too serious, while destroying the livelihoods of so many. Economic and social damage one cant possibly measure.
Not sure of I want to say fuck this virus or fuck governments
 

sand_man

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I don't care at this point, people are only wearing masks because they're being told to do so, yesterday I saw two females walk into KFC and use the cap of their hoodie as a mask 🤦‍♂️ I spoke to the manager and he asked if I am racist. Like what the actual fuck.
Well are you??!!! Hey??!! Hey?!! HEY?!! :LOL:
 
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