Coronavirus around the world thread

LD50

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US reached 100k in 2 months. The second 100k in 5 days

6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week - most claimed layoffs as result of Covid-19
 

Dave

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US reached 100k in 2 months. The second 100k in 5 days

6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week - most claimed layoffs as result of Covid-19

10 million in 2 weeks.

Over 10 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits in March as economy collapsed

More than 6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week — a record — as political and public health leaders put the economy in a deep freeze, keeping people at home and trying to slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus.

The past two weeks have seen more people file for unemployed claims than during the first six months of the Great Recession, a sign of how rapid, deep and painful the economic shutdown has been on many American families who are struggling to pay rent and health insurance costs in the midst of a pandemic.

 

biometrics

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(47,110 / (47,110 + 193,884)) * 100 = 19.6%

19.6% of 933,490 = 182,946 (currently 47,110)
 

LD50

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According to Worldometers we've hit the milestone

Coronavirus Cases:
1,001,958
Deaths:
51,432
Recovered:
210,273
 

biometrics

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According to Worldometers we've hit the milestone

Coronavirus Cases:
1,001,958
Deaths:
51,432
Recovered:
210,273

(51,432 / (51,432 + 210,273)) * 100 = 19.7%

19.7% of 1,001,958 = 197,385 (currently 51,432)

So basically, if you get it you have a 1 in 5 chance of dying.
 

LD50

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(51,432 / (51,432 + 210,273)) * 100 = 19.7%

19.7% of 1,001,958 = 197,385 (currently 51,432)

So basically, if you get it you have a 1 in 5 chance of dying.
These stats doesn't mean much without the actual number of cases at any given point. There's way more cases out there which haven't been tested for - Active cases as well as recovered
 

biometrics

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These stats doesn't mean much without the actual number of cases at any given point. There's way more cases out there which haven't been tested for - Active cases as well as recovered
That's why I use outcomes. Once infected there is a binary outcome, death or recovery. That is good data to use. Based on that the death rate once infected is 1 in 5.
 

LD50

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That's why I use outcomes. Once infected there is a binary outcome, death or recovery. That is good data to use. Based on that the death rate once infected is 1 in 5.
Point taken, you're using current data as the sample which should cater for a 100 data availability scenario as well
Maybe I just don't like the 1 outa 5 prospect😬
 

biometrics

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Point taken, you're using current data as the sample which should cater for a 100 data availability scenario as well
Maybe I just don't like the 1 outa 5 prospect😬
When I first started calculating it, it was 8% and people were poopooing my result. Now it's nearly 20%.
 

LD50

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That being said, that percentage has been on the rise every couple of days. I remember it started off at around 3 or 4%. Now it's up to 20%
Something doesn't add up. Are people dying faster than those recovering?
 

biometrics

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That being said, that percentage has been on the rise every couple of days. I remember it started off at around 3 or 4%. Now it's up to 20%
Something doesn't add up. Are people dying faster than those recovering?
Death does seem to be faster than a recovery, so that will skew the results somewhat.
 

LD50

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Looking at the data again, one need an estimate as to how many of the critical/serious cases will die (maybe a statistician could help with that but access to more data will be needed) . Add that figure to the death toll.
(Projected deaths + current deaths)/total infections = mortality rate
I think that will give a more accurate number.
To say the total number of infections has a binary outcome (recovered or dead) is eventually true - a portion of those infections however are pending. The time from contraction to death could also be quicker than contraction to recovery, as has been mentioned before.

Point being the mortality rate is not 20%
 

biometrics

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Looking at the data again, one need an estimate as to how many of the critical/serious cases will die (maybe a statistician could help with that but access to more data will be needed) . Add that figure to the death toll.
(Projected deaths + current deaths)/total infections = mortality rate
I think that will give a more accurate number.
To say the total number of infections has a binary outcome (recovered or dead) is eventually true - a portion of those infections however are pending. The time from contraction to death could also be quicker than contraction to recovery, as has been mentioned before.

Point being the mortality rate is not 20%
I showed you my math, show me yours.

20% is fact.
 
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