A once-in-a-decade report was just released, outlining what the future of NASA planetary exploration will look like. I read all 760 pages so you don't

[biometrics]

As detailed in my earlier post, the decadal survey is a once-per-decade report compiled by a team of top scientists. Their job is to recommend to NASA which missions the agency should build in its efforts to explore the solar system with robotic probes. The last decadal survey recommended three flagship (big) missions, of which two are now well underway: Mars Sample Return (which became the Perseverance rover) and a Europa mission (which became Europa Clipper). So, while it's non-binding, it's hugely influential and their recommendations are taken seriously.

The report for 2023-2032 was just released a few hours ago. So, what does it say??

Flagship-class missions:​

(Multi-billion dollars each)

MARS SAMPLE RETURN

• The top scientific priority for the decade remains the completion of Mars Sample Return (MSR). This greenlights the upcoming missions, which will launch to Mars in 2028. Their task is 1) Pick up the rock cores that Perseverance has been drilling 2) Load them onto a rocket 3) Blast them into Mars orbit 4) Bring the samples from Martian orbit back to Earth (Europe has agreed to do that part, not NASA). Getting to study Perseverance's rock samples in high-tech laboratories on Earth offers transformative science: chiefly, our best chance ever of detecting fossil alien life - if it ever existed on Mars.
• However, concious of fears that MSR's budget could swell and eat up money needed to explore other parts of the solar system, the report recommends strict limits on possible budget growth.

Besides MSR, which NASA has already started work on anyway, the report recommends 2 new flagships, in order of priority:

1. URANUS ORBITER AND PROBE (UOP)

• This mission is a large Cassini-style mission to explore the Uranian system, which is very poorly understood given that the only time we ever visited was a brief flyby by Voyager 2 in 1986. This will be our first proper study of the "ice giant" class of planet.
• Upon arrival at Uranus, an atmospheric probe will be deployed that will descend through the atmosphere and take measurements. After that, the orbiter will spend several years studying the planet but also its ring system and 5 medium-sized moons - all five of which could be ocean worlds, like Europa.
• The recommended schedule is a launch in 2032 followed by a 13 year cruise (so arrival in 2045!).

2. ENCELADUS ORBILANDER

• Whereas UOP will study an entire planetary system, Enceladus Orbilander will focus on a single world: Saturn's moon Enceladus. As the name suggests, the mission involves an orbiter that will double as a lander. First, it'll analyse the icy plumes that erupt from the moon's south pole for signs of life and study the moon's chemistry and interior to better characterise the habitability of the ocean. Then, it'll land on the surface and repeat the life detection experiments in a promising location it has scouted + study the moon's interior with a seismometer.
• The report makes clear that NASA will only have the funds for Enceladus Orbilander if the planetary science sees a significant but reasonable increase in funding. If that doesn't materialise, or MSR grows to consume the budget, the report recommends that UOP be given priority.

Medium-class (New Frontiers) programme:​

(~1 billion dollars each)

The report recommends the following list of ideas be considered, in no particular order. Depending on budget constraints, only 1-3 of these can be implemented in the following decade.

• Centaur Orbiter and Lander - a mission to study a class of body that orbit between Jupiter and Neptune, kind of halfway between comets and asteroids
• Ceres Sample Return - a mission to collect some of those bright carbonate salts found on Ceres, which is of astrobiological significance, and return them to Earth for study
• Comet Surface Sample Return - a mission to return a sample from a comet to Earth for study, relevant to the formation of the solar system
• Enceladus Multiple Flyby - if the budget isn't available to do Enceladus Orbilander, this could be a cheaper alternative (but wont be as comprehensive and wont include a lander)
• Lunar Geophysical Network - a mission to deploy a network of long-lived landers to study the Moon's interior properties and seismic activity
• Titan Orbiter - a mission to study Titan's atmosphere and map its surface in detail for the first time
• Venus In-situ Explorer - an atmospheric probe to characterise the atmosphere of Venus
• Triton Ocean World Surveyor - a Neptune orbiter focused on evaluating the habitability of its large moon Triton

Mars and lunar exploration programmes:​

ENDURANCE-A

• A lunar rover that will greatly complement the upcoming Artemis landings. While we know we're going to be landing people on the far side of the Moon near the lunar south pole, in terms of science those missions will be limited to how far the astronauts can drive during their short stays on the surface (~10 km max?). The idea here is to send a robotic rover to the Moon in advance, which would then embark on an insane 2,000 km journey all around the region (South Polar Aitken impact structure) to collect ~100kg of rocks representing a huge diversity of rock types. The rover would bring this to a waiting Artemis crew, who would then take the rocks back to Earth for study.

MARS LIFE EXPLORER

• Envisioned as the next Mars mission after MSR, but smaller in scope than MSR (or Perseverance/Curiosity for that matter). Mars Life Explorer is a life-detection mission focusing on searching for evidence of living / present-day Martian life - not fossils, like with previous missions. It consists of a static InSight-like lander which will land at a near-surface ice deposit and drill into it with a 2 m drill. This is also pretty relevant to future human exploration of Mars, because the first Mars base will likely be situated nearby an ice deposit like this.

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You can find the full report online here

There's a public webinar by the authors of the report that'll go live from 2-4 pm ET (now): link here

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